Hurricane Melissa Update

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Tonight on the Disaster Podcast we dig into the expected impacts Hurricane Melissa will carry into Jamaica as it impacts the island country in the Caribbean. Disaster meteorologist Dan DePodwin and disaster emergency management expert Becky DePodwin join us this evening to look at the storm’s origins and projected track.

Melissa threatens multiple countries with hurricane and tropical storm force winds. In addition to Jamaica, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Bermuda are all in the projected cone of travel. Additionally, Haiti and the Dominican Republic are getting peripheral storm effects.

The episode was co-hosted by Sam Bradley and Jamie Davis.

Scroll down for Podcast Discussion Summary

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Thank you as always to Paragon Medical Education Group for their long-term support of the Disaster Podcast. Dr. Joe Holley and the team at Paragon continue to provide excellent and customized disaster response training to jurisdictions around the U.S. and internationally as well.

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Podcast Discussion Summary

Hurricane Melissa Impact Discussion

Jamie hosted a mid-week update episode of the Disaster Podcast to discuss Hurricane Melissa, which is expected to be the strongest storm recorded worldwide in 2023. Jamie, Sam, and Dan discussed the storm’s potential impact, with concerns raised about entire communities being wiped off the coastline due to storm surge and prolonged winds. The team planned to bring in meteorologists and disaster management experts for further updates, and Jamie noted that this episode would be shorter than usual due to another episode already scheduled for Friday.

Category 5 Hurricane Impact Assessment

Dan explained that Jamaica and eastern Cuba are facing a dire situation due to an extremely strong Category 5 hurricane, Melissa, which rapidly intensified over the weekend. He noted that the storm is moving unusually slowly, which will prolong the impacts, including prolonged hurricane-force winds, significant infrastructure damage, and several feet of rain.

Sam mentioned that this year has seen three Category 5 hurricanes, the most in a single season since 2005, and asked Dan about the rarity of such events, to which Dan responded that it is concerning, especially given the potential impacts of climate change on hurricane intensity.

Rapid Hurricane Intensification Trends

Dan explained that rapid hurricane intensification, such as Melissa’s recent rapid development, has become more noticeable due to improved monitoring and reporting, though the exact rate of such events is unclear. He noted several recent examples of rapid intensification, including Hurricane Michael and Otis, which caused significant damage.

Sam asked about factors influencing hurricane speed, and Dan clarified that steering winds in the atmosphere determine a hurricane’s movement, with weak steering winds allowing Melissa to meander slowly across the Caribbean. Jamie raised concerns about the impact of storm surge on coastal communities, particularly critical infrastructure, and questioned how to effectively communicate such risks to the public.

Hurricane Melissa Impact on Jamaica

Jamie and Becky discussed the challenges faced by Jamaicans as Hurricane Melissa approaches, noting the lack of evacuation options due to economic dependencies on fishing and limited resources. Becky highlighted the storm’s well-forecasted nature but expressed concern about the prolonged impact and Category 5 intensity, emphasizing the logistical hurdles in providing aid post-storm.

Dan provided an update on the storm’s projected path, predicting significant impacts in Jamaica, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Bermuda, with Jamaica expected to bear the brunt as the first landfall. He advised residents to remain in safe shelters and outlined the expected wind, flooding, and landslides in affected areas.

Caribbean Hurricane Preparedness Concerns

Becky expressed concerns about the impact of the upcoming hurricane in the Caribbean, particularly in Jamaica, noting that while the island has experienced hurricanes before, this one is expected to be significantly more severe. She highlighted the limited evacuation options and infrastructure challenges, suggesting that many residents may not be prepared for the magnitude of the disaster. Jamie mentioned that a Hurricane Hunter flight was aborted due to extreme wind conditions, an unusual occurrence that Dan might be able to provide more context on.

Hurricane Hunting and Turbulence Challenges

Dan discussed the National Hurricane Center’s report about a NOAA aircraft that encountered severe turbulence while flying through a storm, highlighting the challenges of flying into rapidly intensifying hurricanes. He explained that while commercial flights experience turbulence, hurricane flights can be significantly rougher, with large altitude changes and intense shaking.

Dan also mentioned a notable incident during Hurricane Hugo in the late 1980s when an aircraft lost an engine, leading to changes in procedures. Becky and Sam discussed their interest in hurricane hunting, with Becky recalling a Hurricane Hunter Tour event they attended in Harrisburg, and Dan emphasized the importance of these flights for gathering critical data on hurricane structure and intensity.

Hurricane Impact and Aid Planning

The group discussed the recent hurricane and its impact on the islands, with Dan providing detailed information about weather research planes and their sensor technology. Jamie suggested reaching out to Nick for potential contacts and mentioned that Commonwealth nations might provide aid. The team expressed concern for the islands and emphasized the importance of preparedness, thanking Paragon Medical Education Group for their sponsorship. They agreed to follow up after the storm passes on Thursday and encouraged listeners to check out Paragon’s disaster training programs.